Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.008497 0.009591 0.010775 0.012151 0.013706 0.015409 0.017418
2025-12-14 0.006610 0.008082 0.009806 0.011975 0.014636 0.017795 0.021840
2025-12-21 0.005460 0.007051 0.009019 0.011635 0.015029 0.019291 0.025066
2025-12-28 0.004939 0.006672 0.008913 0.012030 0.016266 0.021836 0.029746
2026-01-04 0.004482 0.006294 0.008730 0.012255 0.017240 0.024064 0.034159
2026-01-11 0.004135 0.006011 0.008624 0.012539 0.018279 0.026424 0.038926
2026-01-18 0.003737 0.005606 0.008292 0.012448 0.018744 0.027975 0.042627
2026-01-25 0.003422 0.005285 0.008042 0.012435 0.019296 0.029666 0.046649
2026-02-01 0.003105 0.004927 0.007696 0.012233 0.019522 0.030855 0.049966
2026-02-08 0.002893 0.004709 0.007543 0.012307 0.020170 0.032731 0.054506
2026-02-15 0.002669 0.004451 0.007299 0.012206 0.020515 0.034129 0.058361
2026-02-22 0.002543 0.004340 0.007279 0.012467 0.021469 0.036586 0.064185
2026-03-01 0.002300 0.004016 0.006888 0.012075 0.021295 0.037156 0.066846
2026-03-08 0.002118 0.003781 0.006628 0.011887 0.021458 0.038316 0.070654
2026-03-15 0.001932 0.003522 0.006301 0.011550 0.021318 0.038915 0.073472
2026-03-22 0.001875 0.003491 0.006375 0.011942 0.022536 0.042055 0.081292
2026-03-29 0.001797 0.003415 0.006361 0.012165 0.023451 0.044701 0.088387
2026-04-05 0.001734 0.003359 0.006378 0.012446 0.024497 0.047667 0.096356
2026-04-12 0.001627 0.003212 0.006211 0.012356 0.024804 0.049225 0.101626
2026-04-19 0.001539 0.003093 0.006089 0.012343 0.025261 0.051106 0.107708
2026-04-26 0.001437 0.002937 0.005882 0.012143 0.025317 0.052178 0.112177
2026-05-03 0.001372 0.002854 0.005813 0.012216 0.025945 0.054464 0.119428
2026-05-10 0.001294 0.002737 0.005666 0.012116 0.026195 0.055976 0.125113